According to the source, some experts believe retail traders still follow the four-year Bitcoin cycle playbook, contributing to the latest crypto market pullback; many analysts cited by the source expect this cycle to be invalidated, signaling that halving-based timing may be less reliable for entries and exits in the current environment. According to the source, traders should prioritize real-time market structure and liquidity signals over fixed-cycle heuristics to manage risk in BTC and majors.

According to @KookCapitalLLC, BTC will hit $144,000 in 2025 and that will mark the cycle top, representing a specific price target and timeframe for traders to track. Source: @KookCapitalLLC on X, Oct 5, 2025. The stated $144,000 target implies roughly a 95% upside versus Bitcoin’s March 2024 record near $73,000, providing a benchmark for upside potential and risk-reward planning. Source: Bloomberg, March 2024 record near $73,000; calculation based on that reference price. Context for cycle timing: the fourth Bitcoin halving occurred at block 840,000 in April 2024, a supply-reduction event often monitored in crypto market cycle analysis. Source: Blockchain.com block explorer halving data (block 840,000, April 2024); Binance Research 2024 halving review. Trading takeaway: if tracking this call, traders may map liquidity and potential resistance near round-number zones such as 100,000, 120,000 and the 144,000 target to plan scale-ins/outs and stops. Source: CME Group education on psychological round-number levels; target level per @KookCapitalLLC on X, Oct 5, 2025. Note that this is a single-account projection without disclosed methodology or data in the post, so it should be treated as sentiment input rather than validated guidance. Source: @KookCapitalLLC on X, Oct 5, 2025 (no methodology provided in the post).

According to @cas_abbe, historical data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has consistently delivered significant returns in August following a halving year, with gains of +65% in both 2013 and 2017, and +13.8% in 2021. With the most recent halving in 2024, traders are closely watching August for a potential repeat of this pattern. This historical trend highlights a key period for BTC price action and may influence trading strategies as market participants anticipate whether 2024 will maintain or break the cycle. Source: @cas_abbe

According to @cas_abbe, Bitcoin's (BTC) failure to break new all-time highs is not due to market suppression but rather significant selling pressure from long-term holders taking profits, as indicated by on-chain data from analyst Checkmate. Concurrently, Sygnum Bank's Head of Investment Research, Katalin Tischhauser, advises caution for traders regarding a potential double top pattern forming with peaks near $110,000 and a support neckline around $75,000. However, Tischhauser believes a 2022-style crash is unlikely, barring a black swan event, because the current market is supported by sticky, long-term institutional capital from spot ETFs and corporate treasuries. She also suggests that the historical four-year halving cycle's impact may be dead, as institutional demand now has a much greater influence on price than the diminishing selling pressure from miners.

According to Katalin Tischhauser, Head of Investment Research at Sygnum Bank, Bitcoin's double top pattern above $100,000 warrants trader caution as it could indicate a bearish trend reversal, potentially leading to a drop below $75,000 if the pattern confirms. However, a full-scale crash like 2022 is improbable without a black swan event such as the Terra or FTX collapses, as institutional inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought over $48 billion in net investments since January 2024, per Farside Investors data, creating sticky demand that supports prices. Tischhauser notes that this flow-driven market, with 141 public companies holding BTC, makes the halving cycle less impactful, reducing the likelihood of prolonged downturns.

According to Katalin Tischhauser, the double top pattern in Bitcoin (BTC) above $100,000 warrants trading caution as it signals potential bearishness, but a full price crash is unlikely without a black swan event like the Terra or FTX collapses. Tischhauser notes that institutional flows, including over $48 billion in net inflows to spot bitcoin ETFs, provide strong price support and resilience, potentially ending the halving cycle's influence due to reduced miner selling pressure.